Currently Missouri has a $500 million dollar surplus, but The Missouri Budget Project, an advocacy group, is convinced the state is headed for hard times will soon be $450 million in the red. That means a $950 million loss and, if these economists are correct, health and education will take a big hit.

"The state cannot deficit spend," said Amy Blouin, Executive Director of The Missouri Budget Project. "We can't run a deficit, we can't borrow money, so what that means is that, next year, there are going to be $500 million worth of cuts in services."

The Project says cuts in services are already down to the bone. In 2005, Missouri ranked 53rd in funding for childcare services, placing it behind 49 states, Guam, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. In national rankings, Missouri places 44th in state spending, 44th in K-12 funding, and 46th in spending on higher education. The number of Missourians without health insurance is also on the rise, growing three times more quickly than the number of residents in other states.

"We're at the bottom of the barrel in health care services across the nation and it's hard to fathom any further cuts in that area," Blouin said.

If The Missouri Budget Project is right, the cuts would hit education and health care the hardest.

"It's more people that we then have to worry about," said Sidney McCarther of AARP. "How are we going to get those folks adequately cared for?"

And yet, the people who write the budget aren't worried. The governor's office said it does not project a deficit in the state's budget any time soon and points out that the national surveys give Missouri high marks for financial management.

So as of now, with the state government unconvinced by The Missouri Budget Project's predictions, a multi-million dollar debate is left up to the forces of the economy.