NOAA increases prediction for 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

6 months 1 week 5 days ago Monday, August 12 2019 Aug 12, 2019 Monday, August 12, 2019 9:38:00 AM CDT August 12, 2019 in Continuous News
By: Meteorologist, Timothy Schmidt
loading

MIAMI, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has increased the likelihood of “above-normal” activity in the Atlantic Basin for the remainder of the 2019 hurricane season.

Their forecast update increased the probability of “above-normal” activity from 30% to 45%, including an increase in the amount of named storms (i.e. tropical storms) from 9-15, to 10-17 storms.

A normal Atlantic hurricane season consists of 12 named storms, 6 of which strengthen into hurricanes, 3 of those hurricanes reaching category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

To be clear, their forecasts are NOT landfall forecasts. Any seasonal landfall forecast you come across is very likely wrong. Their forecast only is to predict the number of storms with tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater, per season.

Up until the first week of August, there have only been three storms to reach tropical depression strength or greater. Two of those storms were named.

  1. Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea around May 21, which impacted Bermuda.

  2. Hurricane Barry around July 13, which impacted the Louisiana coast.

  3. Tropical depression three around July 24, off the Florida/Georgia coast.

Atmospheric conditions have not been conducive for tropical development for majority of the 2019 season, which began June 1. This is expected to change, possibly quickly and abruptly. 

Statistically, most hurricanes develop from August through October, not May through July..

On May 23, the National Hurricane Center issued its 2019 Atlantic hurricane forecast, predicting a “near-normal” amount of tropical cyclone activity this year due to a few key things:

  1. The winter El-Nino pattern would remain persistent into the summer months. This tends to discourage tropical development, suppressing overall activity

  2. Warmer than normal water temps would aid in tropical development. Would a storm develop, rapid development could be possible, as observed with Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018).

  3. The west African monsoonal season would be stronger this year, leading to increased opportunities for low pressure waves to form in the Sahara desert, then migrate into the Atlantic Ocean. This would increase the frequency of tropical storm systems (on average, 2-3 per week)

The latter two encourage tropical development, whereas the El Nino pattern would discourage tropical development

On August 8, the National Hurricane Center issued its mid-season update, predicting an increase in overall tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the 2019 season. 

The reason: the forecasted end of the current El Nino pattern which lead to significant rains over the United States this past winter and spring. This has also been responsible for the lack of overall activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. 

Pictured in this article is a diagram illustrating typical development of tropical waves in ideal conditions, which originate from Africa’s Sahara desert. 

Warm, dry areas of low pressure will organize over the warm waters of the Atlantic, creating thunderstorms. Assuming atmospheric conditions are perfect, the storm system will continue to organize and intensify until it turns into a counter-clockwise rotating cyclone, or hurricane if winds remain sustained at 74 MPH, or greater. 

Often, this is not the case. Dry air aloft kills storms. Strong, or even moderate jet stream winds aloft kills storms. These storms like calm conditions. These storms prefer a “lazy river” type of jet stream.

With some limiting factors now trending out of the long-range pattern, an uptick in tropical cyclone activity is possible leading into the peak months of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 31.

More News

Grid
List
FULTON - Police arrested a 44 year old Fulton man after he attempted to unlawfully enter a home twice, assaulted... More >>
2 hours ago Sunday, February 23 2020 Feb 23, 2020 Sunday, February 23, 2020 6:10:00 AM CST February 23, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Dozens of MU students gathered to raise money for cancer research Saturday. Mizzou's Relay for Life raised... More >>
14 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 6:41:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
JEFFERSON CITY — Police arrested three people after a Saturday afternoon robbery led to a car chase, according to a... More >>
15 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 5:46:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
JEFFERSON CITY — Missouri voters legalized medical marijuana in 2018, but some lawmakers are worried about what that could... More >>
16 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 4:53:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
ST. LOUIS (AP) — Missouri may have shed its unwanted image as the meth lab capital of the U.S.,... More >>
16 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 4:21:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Columbia is getting a break from winter weather this weekend and many residents are taking advantage of it.... More >>
16 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 4:21:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
REEDS SPRING, Mo. – Students in the Reeds Spring School District will begin a four-day school week next school... More >>
16 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 4:11:55 PM CST February 22, 2020 in A Brighter Tomorrow
COLUMBIA – Several First Ward neighborhood associations hosted a town hall forum Saturday with city council candidates to discuss housing,... More >>
17 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 4:07:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
Black LGBTQ youth are less likely to receive mental health... More >>
17 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 3:51:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in A Brighter Tomorrow
COLUMBIA — In an effort to contain the novel coronavirus, the Chinese government has canceled a number of exams this... More >>
18 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 2:56:57 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA— A Columbia chiropractic office hosted a seminar to educate and empower women Saturday afternoon. The event was part of... More >>
18 hours ago Saturday, February 22 2020 Feb 22, 2020 Saturday, February 22, 2020 2:13:00 PM CST February 22, 2020 in News
MOBERLY - Moberly police officers responded to a domestic assault at 1028 Sinnock Ave., at 2:48 a.m. Friday, February 21,... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 10:45:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - "Honest" and "righteous" are just a couple of words friends used to describe Columbia City Councilman Clyde Ruffin.... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 5:55:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Columbia Water & Light plans to perform water valve repairs at the intersection of North College Avenue and... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 4:57:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Columbia Regional Airport with American Airlines are proposing a new daily nonstop air service to Charlotte, North Carolina... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 4:49:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - The Missouri Department of Economic Development awarded $7.3 million to nonprofit's through its Neighborhood Assistance Program this week.... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 4:25:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in News
COLUMBIA - Columbia Police arrested a Jefferson City man in connection to an armed robbery on Jan. 7 at the... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 4:23:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in News
WARDSVILLE - Blair Oaks wrestling sent seven qualifiers to the state championship this weekend in Columbia. Among them is senior... More >>
1 day ago Friday, February 21 2020 Feb 21, 2020 Friday, February 21, 2020 3:55:00 PM CST February 21, 2020 in Sports
Columbia, MO
Broken Clouds 48°
9am 43°
10am 46°
11am 49°
12pm 52°