NOAA increases prediction for 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

1 month 6 days 7 hours ago Monday, August 12 2019 Aug 12, 2019 Monday, August 12, 2019 9:38:00 AM CDT August 12, 2019 in Continuous News
By: Meteorologist, Timothy Schmidt
loading

MIAMI, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has increased the likelihood of “above-normal” activity in the Atlantic Basin for the remainder of the 2019 hurricane season.

Their forecast update increased the probability of “above-normal” activity from 30% to 45%, including an increase in the amount of named storms (i.e. tropical storms) from 9-15, to 10-17 storms.

A normal Atlantic hurricane season consists of 12 named storms, 6 of which strengthen into hurricanes, 3 of those hurricanes reaching category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

To be clear, their forecasts are NOT landfall forecasts. Any seasonal landfall forecast you come across is very likely wrong. Their forecast only is to predict the number of storms with tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater, per season.

Up until the first week of August, there have only been three storms to reach tropical depression strength or greater. Two of those storms were named.

  1. Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea around May 21, which impacted Bermuda.

  2. Hurricane Barry around July 13, which impacted the Louisiana coast.

  3. Tropical depression three around July 24, off the Florida/Georgia coast.

Atmospheric conditions have not been conducive for tropical development for majority of the 2019 season, which began June 1. This is expected to change, possibly quickly and abruptly. 

Statistically, most hurricanes develop from August through October, not May through July..

On May 23, the National Hurricane Center issued its 2019 Atlantic hurricane forecast, predicting a “near-normal” amount of tropical cyclone activity this year due to a few key things:

  1. The winter El-Nino pattern would remain persistent into the summer months. This tends to discourage tropical development, suppressing overall activity

  2. Warmer than normal water temps would aid in tropical development. Would a storm develop, rapid development could be possible, as observed with Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Michael (2018).

  3. The west African monsoonal season would be stronger this year, leading to increased opportunities for low pressure waves to form in the Sahara desert, then migrate into the Atlantic Ocean. This would increase the frequency of tropical storm systems (on average, 2-3 per week)

The latter two encourage tropical development, whereas the El Nino pattern would discourage tropical development

On August 8, the National Hurricane Center issued its mid-season update, predicting an increase in overall tropical cyclone activity for the remainder of the 2019 season. 

The reason: the forecasted end of the current El Nino pattern which lead to significant rains over the United States this past winter and spring. This has also been responsible for the lack of overall activity in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. 

Pictured in this article is a diagram illustrating typical development of tropical waves in ideal conditions, which originate from Africa’s Sahara desert. 

Warm, dry areas of low pressure will organize over the warm waters of the Atlantic, creating thunderstorms. Assuming atmospheric conditions are perfect, the storm system will continue to organize and intensify until it turns into a counter-clockwise rotating cyclone, or hurricane if winds remain sustained at 74 MPH, or greater. 

Often, this is not the case. Dry air aloft kills storms. Strong, or even moderate jet stream winds aloft kills storms. These storms like calm conditions. These storms prefer a “lazy river” type of jet stream.

With some limiting factors now trending out of the long-range pattern, an uptick in tropical cyclone activity is possible leading into the peak months of the season.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until November 31.

More News

Grid
List
COLUMBIA - Teachers, students and parents at Blue Ridge Elementary School are getting used to new security measures. Over... More >>
9 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 6:04:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Multiple people were trapped in elevators across MU's campus as a result of a widespread power outage Tuesday... More >>
10 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 5:26:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Some new artwork is continuing to pop up and gain interest on the MU campus. So far,... More >>
11 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 4:30:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
CAMDENTON - Police are investigating after a Walmart employee found a man dead in a car in the parking lot... More >>
11 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 4:08:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Residents are asking for road improvements after a driver hit and killed a 17-year-old girl on Clark Lane... More >>
12 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 3:46:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The amount of water flowing down the lower Missouri River this year is approaching the... More >>
12 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 3:39:47 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA -MU's football attendance is showing signs of revival, following years of steady decline. The Tigers' average home attendance... More >>
13 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 2:36:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Parents of Columbia Public School students are demanding a change to the way they treat students with special... More >>
13 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 2:29:00 PM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
(CNN) -- Veteran journalist Cokie Roberts, winner of three Emmys and a legend and trailblazer in broadcasting, has died at... More >>
17 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 10:06:00 AM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - The Missouri State Highway Patrol is helping two county agencies with a death investigation Tuesday. Troop F,... More >>
19 hours ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 8:28:00 AM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - School Resource Officers (SROs) will be staying in Columbia Public Schools for at least another month. The Columbia... More >>
1 day ago Tuesday, September 17 2019 Sep 17, 2019 Tuesday, September 17, 2019 1:22:00 AM CDT September 17, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - A seventeen-year-old is dead after being hit by a car while walking on Clark Lane late Monday night.... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 11:20:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
JEFFERSON CITY - A woman face charges of domestic assault, property damage and driving while intoxicated after investigators said she... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 10:11:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
BELLEFONTAINE NEIGHBORS, Mo. — A head-on crash in Cole County over the weekend killed a St. Louis County couple travelling... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 9:45:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - Hickman High School got its first eSports club five years ago, but this year, it's finally getting its... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 3:00:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
ST. LOUIS (AP) — A suburban St. Louis-based company is offering free test-preparation classes for high school students in... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 2:25:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
COLUMBIA - The city did not collect curbside recycling on Monday due to what they are calling "severe collection staff... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 1:28:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
MILLER COUNTY - A man pleaded guilty Monday to child molestation, prosecutors said. Dillon J. Robertson pleaded guilty to... More >>
1 day ago Monday, September 16 2019 Sep 16, 2019 Monday, September 16, 2019 1:12:00 PM CDT September 16, 2019 in News
Columbia, MO
Broken Clouds 73°
4am 72°
5am 71°
6am 70°
7am 70°